The stock market's hitting 10,000 again. Politicians and bankers, anxious for recovery (for votes & bonuses), are claiming victory and saying the recovery is on. I say not so fast. Maybe we recover, but we've been credit-aholics. Like a recovering alcoholic, relapse is a very real danger. As Palley points out below, the econometric models … Continue reading A second Great Depression is still possible
A good piece from Brad Delong. At the core, modern macroeconomic theory is relatively empty and vacuous when it comes to the major crises: last year's melt-down, the Great Depression, the many bubbles, etc. I have to agree with Brad's conclusion that macro theory must re-connect with economic history ( I would suggest micro theory … Continue reading The History of Modern Macroeconomics
Germany was the first major industrialized country to go "socialist" with a social welfare regime. Brad Delong links us to the original platform of the German socialists, the prototype of most of the 20th century European efforts. More after the jump. The Gotha Program of 1875 Full text of "Gotha Programme": I. Labor is the … Continue reading The Gota Program: The Real History of “Socialism”
Popular media like to point to the stock market as a real-time measure of the health of the economy. They particularly like the Dow Industrials average. It makes quick, easy news for lazy journalists. Occasionally they do it right, but it's rare. CNN gets it right here: Don't trust Dow 10,000 The stock market is … Continue reading Dow at 10,000 signals recovery. Or not…
Spoke to Jill Reglin’s Writing class about “Is the Recession Over?”. A copy of the presentation is available at: Powerpoint File MP3 audio of the lecture itself It’s in powerpoint format (ppt). If you don’t have Microsoft Powerpoint, download OpenOffice from the “Free Software” page link at the top of this page. OpenOffice is free … Continue reading Is the Recession Over?
Interesting charts on G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, UK, and US) and the G5 (Brazil, People's Republic of China, India, Mexico, and South Africa) in recent years in various measures such as GDP, auto sales, retail sales, etc. http://www.newsneconomics.com/2009/10/g7-vs-g5-in-charts.html
Employment report is out for September 2009. Not good. Granted it's not the horror show we were seeing early in 2009. The decline of 263,000 in total employment is much better than the 500,000 and 700,000 losses we were seeing earlier this year. But this has been happening a long time now. That's a lot … Continue reading Unemployment and Things that make me go uh-oh.