One of the claims that Tea Partiers, Republicans, and conservative/neo-liberal economists have been making for some time is that “the stimulus has failed”. They conclude that Keynesian economics and economic policies are failures. Since, like most claims of Republicans and other politicians, these assertions are usually repeated uncritically by the news media, it’s close to becoming accepted “common wisdom” that the stimulus failed. It’s not true, though. What happened is that Keynesian stimulus was never tried. Yes, U.S. federal government spending temporarily increased for 2 1/2 years. But the so-called “stimulus” bill of $780 billion passed in Feb 2009 wasn’t all a stimulus spending bill. Much of the money, approx. $380 billion IIRC, was tax cuts. People didn’t really spend much of those tax cuts because they were paying off debt with the money. That’s not a Keynesian stimulus spending program. Keynes pointed out that tax cuts are a weaker way of stimulating spending.
But most important is that the additional spending was over 2 1/2 years, and it was only federal spending. It was completely offset by cuts in spending at the state and local government level. In aggregate, there was no stimulus spending program. It’s now over anyway. What people are doing these days is confusing the increased deficit with increased spending, ignoring the fact that the deficit is so big because tax collections are down. Tax collections are down because too many people aren’t working. And firms won’t hire those people because nobody (including aggregate government) is spending enough.
In effect, although without saying so explicitly, the Obama administration has accepted the Republican claim that stimulus failed, and should never be tried again.
What’s extraordinary about all this is that stimulus can’t have failed, because it never happened. Once you take state and local cutbacks into account, there was no surge of government spending. Here’s total (all levels) government spending over the past 10 years:
Looking at this graph, if you didn’t know there had been a “massive” stimulus, would you even have suspected that there had been any stimulus at all?