The Fed Has NOT Been Printing Money

A common refrain among the “cut, cut, cut” chicken littles and the hard-money crowd is that “the Fed has turned the printing presses lose printing money”.  These folks should really join us in the 21st century.  That’s not how it works and that’s not what The Fed has been doing.  Quantitative Easing, as well as The Fed bailouts of the big banks 2-3 years ago, did not involve “printing money”.  It involved creating bank reserves that are NOT loaned out and therefore do not create new “money” or M1.  James Hamilton explains:

Money and reserves

I wanted to offer some clarification on stories about all the money that the Federal Reserve is supposedly printing. It depends, I guess, on your definition of “money.” And your definition of “printing.”

When people talk about “printing money,” your first thought might be that they’re referring to green pieces of paper with pictures of dead presidents on them. The graph below plots the growth rate for currency in circulation over the last decade. I’ve calculated the growth rate over 2-year rather than 1-year intervals to smooth a little the impact of the abrupt downturn in money growth in 2008. Another reason to use 2-year rates is that when we’re thinking about money growth rates as a potential inflation indicator, both economic theory and the empirical evidence suggest that it’s better to average growth rates over longer intervals.

Currency in circulation has increased by 5.2% per year over the last two years, a bit below the average for the last decade. If you took a very simple-minded monetarist view of inflation (inflation = money growth minus real output growth), and expected (as many observers do) better than 3% real GDP growth for the next two years, you’d conclude that recent money growth rates are consistent with extremely low rates of inflation.

Two year growth rate (quoted at annual percentage rate) of currency in circulation. Data source: FRED.

But if the Fed didn’t print any money as part of QE2 and earlier asset purchases, how did it pay for the stuff it bought? The answer is that the Fed simply credited the accounts that banks that are members of the Federal Reserve System hold with the Fed. These electronic credits, or reserve balances, are what has exploded since 2008. The blue area in the graph below is the total currency in circulation, whose growth we have just seen has been pretty modest. The maroon area represents reserves.

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Change? Looks like same ol’ same ol’ to me.

Excellent but long post by Edward Harrison at Naked Capitalism.

This post describes what’s happening with the “Geithner Plan” for revised bailout of banks/ dealing with toxic assets in the context of an earlier bailout:  the Mexican currency crisis in 1994-95.  It”s many of the same folks involved:  Summers, Geithner, and a populist sentiment in Congress that the powers that be decided to go around.

Good read for both the current crisis and to review the Mexican currency crisis.

Wall Street on the Tundra |

Excellent, though long, article on the current economic crisis and Iceland.  Iceland is a small country that joined the globalized finance and banking bubble in a big way in the last 10 years.  The credit crunch and US housing price declines of 2007-09 have brutally punished this small northern Atlantic country.

Read all about it here at Wall Street on The Tundra from Vanity Fair. Here’s their intro.

Iceland’s de facto bankruptcy—its currency (the krona) is kaput, its debt is 850 percent of G.D.P., its people are hoarding food and cash and blowing up their new Range Rovers for the insurance—resulted from a stunning collective madness. What led a tiny fishing nation, population 300,000, to decide, around 2003, to re-invent itself as a global financial power? In Reykjavík, where men are men, and the women seem to have completely given up on them, the author follows the peculiarly Icelandic logic behind the meltdown.