Finally we are getting some good news. At least most people will consider it good news. Republican Presidential candidates hoping to run against Obama on "weak economy platform" might not happy with the news. Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the January 2012 employment data. The unemployment rate has declined again. It … Continue reading A Journey of 100 Months Starts With the First Month
Well I'm back. Yes, it's been a longer than expected break from blogging driven by work considerations, but contrary to the rumors, I have not been "doomed". So it's on to a new semester and a new resolution to post frequently. I hope 3-5 times per week. To start things off, yesterday was the first … Continue reading Setting the Bar Very Low: The Unemployment Report for December 2011
Washington's Blog reminds us that things got ugly during the last prolonged depression in the United States. This interesting historical footage from the Great Depression shows what happens when large numbers of people are unemployed for years at a time, get desperate, and perceive that the game is rigged to the benefit of Wall Street. … Continue reading The Economy Has Caused Riots Before – In the Great Depression
This being the first Friday of the month, the latest U.S. employment report was released this morning. Not good news. In a nutshell: no new net jobs created and the unemployment rate holds steady at 9.1%. It disappointed even the weak expectations of forecasters. The news continues to show an economy that has stalled without … Continue reading Jobs And Unemployment Report For August 2011 – More Bad News, More Signs Economy Is Stalled, No Net New Jobs
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) the U.S. has a cumulative output gap of $2.8 trillion so far since the recession began. That's trillion with a TR, as in a million millions. This is the core problem in the U.S. today and for the next couple years. The recession saw the economy shrink and … Continue reading The Mess We’re In – Trillions of Dollars of Missing GDP
Earlier this week the absurd and totally unnecessary debate in Washington over raising the national debt-ceiling came to an agreement, both houses of Congress passed it, and the President signed it. Earlier this week I gave this metaphor for the deal, wondering why we need enemies with "friends" like our representatives in Washington. Now that … Continue reading We Have A Debt-Ceiling Deal. The Economy Loses.
Brad Delong has had enough. So have I. "The Little Depression" Back in late 2008 people asked me: is this a recession or a depression? I said that I would call it a depression if the unemployment rate kissed 12%. I said that I would call it a depression if the unemployment rate stayed above … Continue reading What to Call This Unpleasantness? Little Depression or Workers’ Depression?
Brad DeLong is as puzzled as I, but is more eloquent in expressing it. In so doing he does my classes a favor in expressing a quick version of the history of addressing macro economic crises. For nearly 200 years economists from John Stuart Mill through Walter Bagehot and John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman … Continue reading Why the Austerity Talk?
From UCLA: UCLA Anderson Forecast: U.S. recovery a long, slow climb; Calif. recovery weaker than nation's (emphases mine): "If the next year is going to bring exceptional growth," [UCLA Anderson Forecast director Edward] Leamer writes, "consumers will need to express their optimism in the way that really counts — buying homes and cars. And that … Continue reading Catch 22 Recovery
The stock market's hitting 10,000 again. Politicians and bankers, anxious for recovery (for votes & bonuses), are claiming victory and saying the recovery is on. I say not so fast. Maybe we recover, but we've been credit-aholics. Like a recovering alcoholic, relapse is a very real danger. As Palley points out below, the econometric models … Continue reading A second Great Depression is still possible