When I was kid there was a comment I dreaded but got too often on too many grade reports to my parents: Not performing up to potential. I hated that. I must say, though, that there times when it did motivate me to do better. The same comment, not performing up to potential, can easily … Continue reading Not Performing Up To Potential
GDP
The Problem in One Graph
Yesterday I said I was reluctant to get over-optimistic about the recent slight upturn in employment data. This year may truly be different from the last few, but there's a nagging feeling that we've seen this movie before. I'm not alone in the feeling. As 2012 dawns, Tim Duy summarizes the problem in one graph (emphasis … Continue reading The Problem in One Graph
November Employment and Revised 3rd Qtr 2011 GDP
I'm a few days late but I wanted to note the latest employment (jobs) report and the first revision to 3rd quarter GDP. There's really not much news here - it's the same old story. The economy continues to move along somewhat like a zombie. Not really dead, but definitely not anything you could call … Continue reading November Employment and Revised 3rd Qtr 2011 GDP
Update on Current Situation – October Jobs Report and 3rd Qtr GDP
Two of the more important (U.S.) economic measures were reported in last week and half. Yesterday the October jobs report came in. The week before we got the flash report on 3rd quarter GDP. Both measures were better than feared, not quite as good as consensus expectations of many forecasters, and overall still a disappointment. … Continue reading Update on Current Situation – October Jobs Report and 3rd Qtr GDP
UPDATE on President Obama’s Jobs Proposal – Better, But Still Weak
First an update on a post I made a few days ago. When I commented last Monday on President Obama's jobs proposal, I was less than excited. Having read more detail of the proposal, I should correct some statements I made. I incorrectly left the impression that the payroll tax (Social Security/Medicare tax) cut that … Continue reading UPDATE on President Obama’s Jobs Proposal – Better, But Still Weak
The Mean and the Median Tell Two Different Stories
Averages, if you're not careful, can as easily mislead as enlighten. It matters a lot which statistical measure of the "average-ness" that's used. A good example comes in the case of the U.S. long-term trend of economic growth. What we're interested in is to what degree the amount of GDP the average household has available … Continue reading The Mean and the Median Tell Two Different Stories
GDP and GDI: Two Sides of the Same Coin (Theoretically)
One of the starting points for understanding macroeconomics is to understand basic measures of the economy and what we call the "circular flow" of goods and services. The "circular flow" refers to the idea that firms are the economic "agents" who produce and sell all our goods and services for sale, and that households are … Continue reading GDP and GDI: Two Sides of the Same Coin (Theoretically)
The Mess We’re In – Trillions of Dollars of Missing GDP
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) the U.S. has a cumulative output gap of $2.8 trillion so far since the recession began. That's trillion with a TR, as in a million millions. This is the core problem in the U.S. today and for the next couple years. The recession saw the economy shrink and … Continue reading The Mess We’re In – Trillions of Dollars of Missing GDP
Hurricanes, Disasters, and GDP
Ok, normally I'm writing about the disastrous effects of changes in GDP. Today, though, I'm going to write about the effects of disasters on GDP. As I write this, it's mid-day on Saturday, Aug 27. Hurricane Irene has just hammered North Carolina and the Outer Banks. Irene is continuing in both it's push up the Eastern seaboard … Continue reading Hurricanes, Disasters, and GDP
GDP for 2nd Quarter Revised Downward
As is normal practice, the BEA released the second estimate of 2nd quarter GDP growth. GDP growth was definitely even slower in 2nd quarter than previously reported. CalculatedRiskBlog tells us: From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2011 (second estimate Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and … Continue reading GDP for 2nd Quarter Revised Downward
EconProph 