Government finally starts to get out of the way of recovery. In an earlier post today on the good news of the January 2012 employment report, I observed that one of the major factors resulting in an improved (but not good enough) jobs report was that government employment numbers stopped dragging down the total. I … Continue reading Government and the Slow Jobs “Recovery”
Yesterday I recapped the November employment report. The employment picture remains grim. The workers depression continues. As my favorite graph from Calculated Risk shows here, regardless of what happens to the unemployment rate, our recovery from the jobs lost in the recession is incredibly slow. At the pace we have been on for the last … Continue reading Fixes for Unemployment Depend on Whether It’s Cyclical (It Is) or Structural (It Isn’t)
Last week I discussed how I think the President's jobs proposal, the American Jobs Act, will be less than stimulating. I updated it here. I based my analysis on what economists call "back of the envelope" calculations - quick simple estimates of the key variables using rounded numbers. Now the folks at Goldman Sachs research … Continue reading Stimulus Requires More Than Taking Your Foot Off the Brakes
First an update on a post I made a few days ago. When I commented last Monday on President Obama's jobs proposal, I was less than excited. Having read more detail of the proposal, I should correct some statements I made. I incorrectly left the impression that the payroll tax (Social Security/Medicare tax) cut that … Continue reading UPDATE on President Obama’s Jobs Proposal – Better, But Still Weak
After over a year of Presidential and Congressional debate and sparring about how to reduce spending, cut deficits, and limit debts, the politicians in Washington have finally taken notice that we have a "jobs crisis". Specifically, we simply aren't creating new employment fast enough to reduce our high levels of unemployment. Timidity wrapped in strong … Continue reading The Obama Jobs Proposal Is Less Than Stimulating
A Cartoon by Ruben Bolling (via Economic Perspectives): From politicalirony.com Oh that Scooby and Company were real. We could use them to catch the phantom of crowding out.
One of the claims that Tea Partiers, Republicans, and conservative/neo-liberal economists have been making for some time is that "the stimulus has failed". They conclude that Keynesian economics and economic policies are failures. Since, like most claims of Republicans and other politicians, these assertions are usually repeated uncritically by the news media, it's close to … Continue reading There Was No “Stimulus” Spending in Aggregate
It's become fashionable, particularly among Republicans and Conservatives, to claim that Keynesian Policy doesn't work despite the empirical record. Methinks they don't know what Keynesian policies are analyses really are. Mark Thoma points out: Issa: Everyone Knows That the Policies I Called for Don't Work Republican House member Darrell Issa has an op-ed in the … Continue reading Who Says Keynesian Policy Doesn’t Work?
The current bill finding it's way through Congress from Senate to House regarding "tax cuts" will add to the deficit. How much? $857 billion worth. That means that this bill, which is in fact a stimulus bill, is actually a bigger stimulus bill than the one Obama and Congress passed in February 2009. The earlier … Continue reading Tax Cuts, Deficits, Debt
James Hamilton at Econbrowser summarizes my thoughts too: Extending unemployment benefits Here I make two quick observations on the policies being discussed. The first point has been widely noted, but it bears repeating since I keep hearing comments from people who seem to be unaware of it. When you hear that current unemployment benefits can … Continue reading The Necessity of Extending Unemployment Benefits